Observations on
Psychology and the Markets
Last week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN’s price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since the March market low and the high likelihood of further upside for the stock.
In case you’ve missed it, we have recently found ourselves in a bear market environment.
The first quote I want to share with you about this market environment is,
“Bull markets are great, but they breed complacency. Bear markets can be energizing. Instead of fretting over the decline in your net worth think opportunistically about all of those bargains and the potential gains when inevitably a bull market returns.” – James B. Stewart
I recently commented that bond prices had completed a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting further upside for prices, and therefore, a further downside for interest rates. I received some pushback suggesting that interest rates were at all-lows. How could I possibly see further upside for bond prices?
When you check your portfolio to discover that your holdings are going down, or already in the red, how does that make you feel, physically? Likely, it is a slightly painful feeling and you get sweaty palms, feel lightheaded, get a weird feeling in the pit of your stomach, or maybe you feel pessimistic (or optimistic)?
