A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine.

When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining which chart they should be looking at in the first place!

My broad market analytical approach is comprised of three main steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment.

First off is price. If you ask me what chart I would look at to get a read on the S&P 500 index, my answer would be a chart of the price of the S&P 500 index! Price is king.

One of the key investment themes of 2020 has been the rotation from a stronger US Dollar environment to a weaker dollar through mid-September. However, signs are emerging that the downtrend in the greenback may be nearing its end, which will have implications for equities through year end.

I have heard much discussion of volume conditions in recent months, with the S&P 500 achieving all-time highs but accompanied by volume well below average levels. Does this mean the recent breakout in stocks should be suspect?

Yes and no.

The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about defining the trend, recognizing shifts in the trend and anticipating potential trend changes. So now that the S&P 500 is in a raging uptrend with no apparent end in sight, what would I need to see to turn bearish?

Today’s chart is the Nasdaq 100 index, and the focus is on bearish divergences. A bearish divergence is when you have higher highs in price and lower peaks in momentum, in this case in the form of RSI.

Market breadth at a high level essentially means market participation, so when the market is on the move, it tells you how many stocks are participating in the trend.

I love to ask interviewees if they had one chart to get a good read on the overall market environment, what would it be and why? My One Chart for today is IWM, the small cap ETF.

This post has nothing really to do with food, except my Uber driver this morning was from Brazil. He was telling me all about Brazilian delicacies such as coxinha and pao de queijo and by the time we arrived at the hotel I was pretty much starving. But three quick market/behavioral observations to share with you on a Wednesday…

As I was just getting started as a technical analyst, an early mentor of mine warned me that I was getting into the dark arts. The way he put it, “A technician’s phone always rings more in a bear market.”