Stall Speed and the S&P (2018 Edition)
Any time I read about a market "stalling" or reaching "stall speed" my palms start to sweat. They are literally sweating right now. Let me share why I'm uncomfortable, then I'll explain why stalls are often an ideal representation of the markets.
The Return of Value?
Growth stocks have been on an incredible run for the last sixteen months, handily outpacing value names. A recent breakdown in the growth to value range suggests this trend may be reversing.
Dialing Up the Dollar
One of the most important lessons I learned as an aspiring technical analyst was to consider multiple time frames in your analysis…
How to Handle a Range-Bound Market
I’m often asked whether I’m bullish or bearish on a certain market. I always like to remind people that the market can actually go in three directions, listed in order from least painful to most painful: up, down, and sideways.
Habe Einen Backup Plan
We had a couple days in Munich last week before flying down to Palermo for Spring Break in Sicily. We also were blessed with yet another reminder of the importance of the well-crafted backup plan.
Three Lessons from Janet Yellen
Watching the yield curve steadily flatten over the last couple years, I'm reminded of the classic relationship between the shape of the yield curve and recessionary periods. However, Janet Yellen is here to say those fatal words, "This time is different."
Slippery Signs from Junk Bonds
High yield or "junk" bonds are often a leading indicator for stocks as they gauge bondholders appetite for risk. Although key high yield indices have held up in recent months, breakdowns in the two largest junk bond ETFs suggest further downside for the equity markets.
Softly Scrutinizing Sectors
One of the best ways to get color on leadership in the equity markets is to look at the 11 sector ETFs. With the S&P 500 testing the top of a clearly defined range, it seemed an opportune time to review these sector charts and compare them to the broader index.
Will the Real Permabull Please Stand Up?
Well, after one year of sharing many behavioral, technical and market insights through social media, it finally happened. I guess I knew this day would finally come, but it surprised me nonetheless. That's right, someone labelled me a "permabull".
The Beauty of a Range-Bound Stock Market
A sideways, or range-bound, market represents an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. I wrote a piece over at seeitmarket.com recently about the S&P 500 settling into a price range between its 50-day moving average (a common short-term trend indicator) and its 200-day moving average (a good long-term trend indicator).
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“Those who can not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”